Trends to Watch Shaping the Future of Senior Living Design

Editor’s Note: This blog is part of our Design Forecast blog series, looking at what’s next in 2025 and beyond.

By 2030, one in six people in the world will be aged 60 years or over, according to the World Health Organization. This demographic will have profound social and economic impacts, especially for those designing, investing in, and providing places for older people to live.

We sat down with JP Emery, Northwest regional practice area leader for Gensler’s senior living practice, to talk about the future of senior living design and the trends shaping the market in 2025 and beyond.

JP Emery: Middle market seniors are a huge population whose needs are not being met with services and care. This cohort, defined as seniors with 80-120% Area Median Income (AMI) with relatively modest net worth, is not eligible for many of the low-income programs in the U.S., but they’re also lacking the income to pay for care and services they would need and enjoy. The industry is struggling with how to meet the needs of this large and growing contingent.

Among the “market rate” (above 120% AMI) population, we should expect to see occupancies to exceed 90% in all major markets in the next 24 months, and then become supply constrained for the next decade. Even if we provided new units at that rate, we’d have a shortage of 800,000 units. Due to land and construction costs, regulatory timelines, and labor constraints, we’re not going to deliver at that pace, even at the high end of the market.

Finally, there’s the industry labor shortage. Nearly all senior living communities have open staff positions. The regulatory environment in the U.S. is constraining labor supply, so there will continue to be a shortage of people who provide direct care to seniors, and that is going to be another constraint to the housing supply. If you can build senior living, but you can’t staff it, you might as well not build it.

How are you seeing the emergence of “Active Adult” senior living communities?

The average age we’re seeing in the industry for Active Adult move-ins is 68. The industry sees it as a growth opportunity — as a new product type, there’s huge opportunity to build it. It also could potentially be a part of the solution to middle market and for consumers who don’t want to enter traditional independent living, because Active Adult is fundamentally a value-based care and services choice.

We think the next big push in senior living is responding to the unique preferences of the Boomer generation. Boomers and younger generations are more interested in maintaining health span, rather than just extending life span. They’re more interested in being active participants in managing their lives, rather than just paying for someone to take care of their daily needs.

How might the emergence of mixed-use, intergenerational developments redefine the future of senior living?

Older adults want to be engaged in social and civil society. It’s no longer enough to just be around people their own age; they also want easy availability to their own family, and to be in a neighborhood environment. We expect to see more integration of all generations into the housing model as part of a mixed-use or master plan development, where seniors get the social opportunities that come from being around more people of their own age, but also the enjoyment of being around all generations. You’re going to see those communities in high demand and providing value to younger families as well.

In Seattle, there’s a community where the assisted living community is integrated with a childcare facility and there’s enrichment activities between those two generations. And you’re seeing this in co-housing, and in affordable housing, where bridging children who are transitioning out of foster care and older adults is restorative to both populations. We have to find creative ways to put these parties together and develop them in single communities while respecting the different financing sources. That’s a challenge that Gensler is uniquely suited to solve.

Do you expect to see more senior housing to be built on university campuses, or other developments?

Sports-anchored, mixed-use developments are a huge opportunity. We’re also seeing growth in University Based Retirement Communities (UBRC), which are senior housing communities built on university campuses. Those communities can bring new revenue to universities that have underutilized land. Seniors could also be part of their alumni base, bringing donors onto campus. Additionally, college students would benefit from more interactions with seniors, and there’s potential for unique educational programs — whether lifelong learning or gerontology — that would benefit from a greater senior living presence on campus.

How are amenities changing for senior living communities?

The old model of senior living was to build fixed purpose rooms — such as a library, cinema, or café. With construction costs and land limitations, providers need to think about how to build more efficiently. In an environment where we have to figure out ways to build less, it’s worth asking, what are seniors actually looking for? They’re looking for meaningful interaction, and the way to achieve that is to better target the activities to the more niche desires of the population.

A multipurpose space that could be used for a variety of different uses — chair yoga in the morning, bowling in the afternoon, and crafts after that — is going to achieve higher utilization and build less square footage. Additionally, it will drive engagement within smaller groups. The senior population is less homogenous than we believe it to be, and we have to be nimble in what activities we provide them, and the spaces we build should be adaptable to recognize their unique identities and desires.

How will issues of resilience and extreme weather impact senior living?

Resilience is a huge topic. Seniors are a vulnerable population who are more susceptible to health risks associated with climate change, such as extreme heat and wildfire smoke, and they’re often less mobile, so evacuation may not always be feasible in hurricanes or other disasters. The built environment can help protect and keep seniors alive in extreme and changing conditions.

How will advanced technologies revolutionize the senior living experience for residents and caregivers?

The senior living industry is beginning to get smart about using data to measure engagement. Seniors are using technology much more often than in the past. Providers can use data to drive engagement in activities. Another avenue is health data analytics, such as wearable body trackers or environmental sensors that can track activity levels throughout the day or identify if there’s an emergency. Caregivers and adult children who are making decisions about their parents want that level of transparency.

Voice assistants and video calling are already popular, and I would expect to see more technologies that create digital presence. Because of the labor shortage, there are a lot of opportunities for robotics to replace rote activities so staff can spend more time with residents. I see that as an incredible net positive for these communities, and it enables us to build more housing for people who need it.