The Next Big Generation at Work
May Not Be Who You Think
Historically, the fastest growing age group in the U.S. workforce has always been the upcoming generation. Not anymore.
Every 15 years or so, a new generational cohort begins the transition from the educational years of their lives to the working years. Historically, these transitions have been acknowledged as a natural and wholly predictable progression, like the changing of seasons.
Beginning with millennials, that changed. In this century, the advent of a new generation in the workforce seems to create a sort of frenzy. Who are they? What matters to them? How will they work? What do they want in a workplace? We are given the sense that with a new generation imminent, the workplace must figure out how to adapt to them, not the other way around.
But this next gen fixation has caused most of us to miss something even bigger happening at the other end of the workforce. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the fastest growing age group in the U.S. workforce today is workers 75 years or older (+78%); the second fastest is workers 65 to 74 (+25%). No other age segment even comes close.
A Global Population Teetering on Decline
“Demographics are destiny” is a concept attributed to Auguste Comte, a late-19th century social scientist. He had observed the outsize role that the composition of a country’s population plays in determining its future. Population size, birth rates, death rates, average lifespan, and whether these factors are trending up or down, all combine to shape other drivers of that country’s fate — economic, social, political, and cultural — for decades to come and beyond.
What are demographics today telling us about our destiny?
Globally, fertility rates are plummeting, as they have been for decades. To maintain population size, a country’s fertility rate must be around 2.1-2.3 births/woman, referred to as the replacement rate. Anything higher and a population will grow; anything lower, and it will shrink. Today, an estimated 110 global nations — representing about two thirds of the world’s population — have fallen below the replacement rate.
Directionally, the fertility rate is projected to continue its downward trend. The United Nations pinpoints 2084 as the year the global fertility rate will fall so low that the world’s population will start to decline. Other researchers posit that it may have already begun to do so.
While birth rates are decreasing, life expectancies are increasing in virtually every country on Earth. Since 1960, global life expectancy has leapt up over 25 years, from 48 years to 73 years today.
Decreasing birth rates and increasing life expectancies are shaping a demographic profile like nothing the world has ever seen. With fewer births and people living longer, the average age of the global population is the highest it has ever been and is increasing at the fastest rate ever. In the next 25 years, the number of people over 65 will more than double, reaching 1.6 billion people.
The Oldest Workforce in History
This demographic transformation around aging is important within the context of work, because the workforce is drawn directly from the general population. Patterns occurring within the population overall are reflected — and sometimes even magnified — in the makeup of the workforce.
So, it should come as no surprise: just as we’re seeing rapid population aging, we’re seeing rapid workforce aging. We have the oldest global workforce in history, and it, too, is only getting older. The impact of this phenomenon is illustrated in a Bain & Company study, which forecasts that by 2030, over 150 million jobs — roughly the size of the entire U.S. workforce — will shift to workers over age 55.
The United States is a good case study. The fertility rate in the U.S. is around 1.7 births/woman, far below that 2.1 replacement rate. Were it not for immigration, its population would be in a steep decline. Life expectancy in the U.S. has risen to around 79 years of age. These two diverging trend lines — decreasing births and increasing lifespans — have drastically altered the makeup of the country’s general population and, in turn, its workforce. As recently as 25 years ago, workers 55 years and older were the smallest age segment of the U.S. workforce. Today they are the largest, and only growing larger.
Not only are people living longer, but they are also staying healthy longer, allowing them the option to work longer. This extended healthiness has also come with a marked attitudinal shift regarding retirement. As recently as 1995, when asked about their plans at retirement age, 86% of people said they planned to retire. A similar study conducted in 2023 found that 73% of people planned to continue to work in some fashion. The shift towards a predominantly service economy has also provided more opportunity to do so, significantly increasing the availability of jobs not requiring significant physical effort.
Not only is the workforce getting grayer, but the conventional dynamics of workforce change have been completely upended. Historically, the fastest growing age group in the workforce has always been the next upcoming generation. Today it’s septuagenarians.
The Age-Welcoming Workplace
Workplaces exist to support the people who work within them. So, when there are transformational changes happening within the workforce, we need to pay attention. Older workers are poised to become a much more important factor in workforce growth and business performance. As part of a Gensler Research Institute study exploring the subject of workers over 65 and their workplace experience, we uncovered some very surprising insights to inform how the workplace environment might evolve to become more age-welcoming.
In the first phase of the study, our team explored the forces that led to the growth and importance of this age segment, the value proposition for engaging older workers and their positive impact on organizational performance, and the societal imperative to create conditions that encourage people to work longer.
In the second phase, we turned to hard data. We analyzed Gensler’s 2024 Global Workplace Survey through the lens of career stage: Early Career, respondents ages 18-29; Mid-Career, ages 30-49; Later-Career, ages 50-64; and Extended Career, respondents aged 65 and over.
The results proved fascinating. The analysis of the Extended Career cohort revealed a dynamic, engaged, and highly committed worker demographic, who also debunked a number of age-based stereotypes all too prevalent in workplace design today. The results also show the important role a high-performing office environment — an age-welcoming workplace — can play in retaining, engaging, and empowering older workers.
While understanding the needs of older workers in the context of the workplace environment is important, existing research and recommendations tend to solely focus on physical interventions that may be necessary to accommodate aging bodies. That misses a much larger opportunity.
This aging workforce transformation warrants at least as much attention as we’re directing at the arrival of Gen Z. When approaching this growing cohort of over 65 workers, our questions should be similar to those we ask about younger generations: Who are they? What matters to them? How will they work? What do they want in a workplace?
Leveraging our research, we’re excited to share some of the answers to those questions in the coming months. Stay tuned to read the next blog in this series and contact us to learn more.
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